From the category archives:

financial results

This has the feel of a big week. The headlines that clicked by on Bloomberg today captured a different zeitgeist than last week, a sense of a logjam of rhetoric and disconnection break open.

Commentators will have a field day, but it’s worth taking a look at how the rhythm of the news shifted.

1-21 hed 11 go 1.pngHere’s the summary of the day.

  • The activity that drives jobs and the economy — manufacturing and services — is gearing up, albeit slowly.
  • The employment market continues to stabilize.
  • Obama, faced with a strategic defeat in Massachusetts, quickly tunes into popular opinion, backs off health care and goes straight after the Wall Street titans.
  • Consumers are beginning to spend more, and the biggest Wall Street giant of them all bows to popular opinion to cut back its bonus pool, after using a Federal subsidy to post its highest earning year ever.
  • In the midst of this sudden shift in momentum, the market slides, unclear what the implications are and in a hurry to hedge its downside risk.

Here’s the highlights from Bloomberg:

U.S. Economy: Leading Index Rises More Than Forecast

The New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 1.1 percent, the most in three months, after increasing 1 percent in November. The gain exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey for a 0.7 percent rise. Another report showed Philadelphia-area manufacturing expanded in January for a fifth straight month.

Factories in Philadelphia Fed Region Grew in January

Increases in exports and business investment, combined with a need to stabilize inventories, may promote further gains in manufacturing in early 2010. The report corroborates figures issued by the Fed Bank of New York last week that showed factories in that region accelerated, indicating the rebound is broad-based.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise on Backlog

The jump was due to an “administrative” accumulation from late December and early January holidays, and did not reflect “economic” reasons, a Labor Department spokesman said.

Obama, Democrats Signal Willingness to Scale Back Health Bill

President Barack Obama and House Democratic lawmakers signaled a willingness to scale back legislation overhauling the U.S. health-care system after the party suffered a defeat in a key Senate race.

Obama Calls for Limiting Size, Risk-Taking of Banks

President Barack Obama, tapping into voter anger over bank bailouts, called for limiting the size and trading activities of financial institutions as a way to reduce risk-taking and prevent another financial crisis.

American Express Profit Surges as Spending Rebounds

“We still face the challenge of high unemployment levels, depressed real estate values, and shrunken household balance sheets, but the overall economy and our company are in stronger shape than they were a year ago,” Chenault said in the statement. “While the economic recovery now under way is likely to be modest, we expect it to continue and have begun to shift our focus to growing American Express for the longer term.”

Goldman Sachs Posts Record Profit on Bonus Pool Cuts

“The big story is the compensation,” said Keith Davis, an analyst at Farr, Miller & Washington LLC in Washington, which manages about $650 million, including Goldman Sachs shares. “They got the message that politically they can’t be paying out close to 50 percent of revenues anymore, at least for the time being. Obviously, that’s the primary reason for the beat.”

Stocks, Commodities Slide, Treasuries Gain on Obama Bank Reform

“Financials are selling off and dragging down the market,” said Michael Nasto, the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages about $2.5 billion in San Antonio. “There’s concern about an overhaul of financial services companies, with increased regulation, hurting the bottom-line of banks.”

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holiday sales ecommerce.jpg

The highlights of the holiday season are being presented in dribs and drabs. Earning seasons will tell us a lot. The consumer was clearly trying to generate energy in fits and starts. Spending was still tamped down.

But within the story about overall spending, there’s another significant trend: More and more buying went online.

The table to the right from eMarketer shows the change in retail e-commerce during the holiday season from 2008 to 2009. The figures suggest that a significant portion of consumers are incorporating their e-commerce behaviors into a multi-channel shopping strategy.

My experience reflects that. On December 20th or so, my wife and I went online and ordered about 80% of what we needed for our five kids for Christmas. The few days before Christmas, we shopped locally to get a couple of bigger gifts and to fill around the edges. I’d estimate that 75% of our Holiday shopping happened online and in the last week of the season.

The traditional metrics of Holiday tracking, which get huge coverage in the news, don’t capture this real economic activity.

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Three charts that help explain the challenges for local economies

January 11, 2010

These three charts help frame why the current economic climate doesn’t feel like a recovery.
State tax receipts have experienced a dramatic decline.

As retail sales drop, so do retail tax receipts, a big driver of local tax revenue.

As long as people are out of work, retail sales will be supressed. The current spate of job [...]

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When can a 1% drop feel explosive? When it follows double-digit declines…

October 14, 2009

Another sign of the leveling off of the economy: ad forecaster Magna Research has upgraded its projection for ad spending next, calling for a 1.3% decline. That compares to an earlier forecast of 2.1%.
The contrast to this year’s performance is stark. In the first and second quarter, ad spending declined 18%, Magna has [...]

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Thinking about the short-term direction of the housing market

September 9, 2009

I’ve been musing the last couple of days over the trajectory of the economy and the housing market, wondering what the recent trends portend. One by-product of the economic decline, neatly summed up in Paul Krugman’s New York Times piece this past Sunday, is that no expert is reliable. The future is unknowable [...]

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Rental outlook: Pressure on revenue, some improvements in traffic, focus on retention

August 6, 2009

I spent some time this morning looking through the transcripts of the Equity, AIMCO and Avalon Bay earnings calls and excerpted some sections that neatly summarize the current market conditions and outlook.
While revenue is down, declines in the rental rates of new leases are being offset by a widening spread between new lease and renewal [...]

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