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Business cycle

A look at the leverage cycle

November 9, 2009

If you give people money to buy things, they’ll buy more than if they are using their own money. The less skin in the game, the more risk they will take. That’s the essence of what Yale economist John Geanakoplos calls “leverage cycle” theory. An article in the Wall Street Journal last [...]

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The current state of the economy in 5 pictures

October 1, 2009

Let’s take a step back and look at some of the big trends that are driving the consumer economy.
First, the change in private-sector employment. While the month-to-month employment figures have been moderating, we are still looking at the loss of 7 million jobs in the last two years. That makes people feel insecure [...]

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The consumer recovery needs 15 million jobs created in 5 years…a formidable challenge

September 28, 2009

The New York Times this weekend had a stark picture of the imbalance of supply and demand in the employment. Nearly 14.5 million people are out of work and there are only about 2.4 million job openings in the U.S.

Coincidentally, John Mauldin’s letter this Saturday takes a close look at the scale of unemployment [...]

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