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chairman

My cell phone rang through with a blocked number a few times this morning. I’m busy working on a presentation for a big meeting with one of our top brands and didn’t want to field an unexpected call, so I let it go through to the mailbox.

A little while later, an e-mail popped up in my in-box with the subject line: American Express Executive Office.

The message was brief and efficient:

M94C1B11D-22BB-4EA3-98DB-C88F87F3BBF8.jpgy name is Natacha and I have been unsuccessful in reaching you by telephone.  I am contacting you in response to your comments regarding William’s issue.  I believe I may have a solution for you and I hope that you will give me an opportunity to rectify the matter.”

My first thought was that this was an elaborate fraud.  My interest piqued, I picked up the phone message.  Natacha was from the Chairman’s office at American Express.

Impressive.  And attentive.  And quick.

I called.  Natacha explained that she was calling on behalf of the Chairman and wanted to try to help provide a solution to the problem I had encountered in customer service.

I thanked her for the call, and said that I was impressed that the office was reaching out of a matter that, in the grand scheme of things, is fairly inconsequential.

“Every card member makes a difference,” she said.  Then she outlined a very logical solution to my issue:  she’s contacted the premium global assist on my behalf, had established a case number and created an opportunity for me to wire a sufficient amount of money to Will in Spain.

As we wound down, she assured me that she would be contacting the customer service area I had reached to address what appeared to be a gap in their training.

This was a good customer experience.

At the very end of the call, I expressed my regret that I had been so frustrated.  Her answer was striking:  Everyone is experiencing a lot of stress, worrying about their jobs and all.  It gets us all on edge.  We’ve just got to be more patient with each other.

Is there a grand lesson here?  The biggest lesson is that engaging in a personal and sympathetic way creates a powerful forum for dialogue and understanding.  The second lesson is that American Express is paying attention and is quick to respond in a constructive way.  A cynic might say that the response came only because of the public forum that I aired my complaint in, but that’s not really an issue.  Companies make mistakes all the time, and the measure of an organization’s commitment to their customers is their willingness to correct the individual instance of the mistake and to address the root cause of the mistake.

American Express proved itself worthy on the first point.  And for the sake of the brand, and for the authenticity of Natacha, I hope that they are able to make improvements on the second point.

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A constant siren during this economic disruption is the sound of experts forecasting all kinds of dire, or uplifting, developments ahead.

Take this morning: I wake up, scan Bloomberg to get a sense of the market futures and how the overseas markets did overnight, and see that earnings for Best Buy and ConAgra were higher than anticipated, that GDP dropped more than reported in the fourth quarter and that the market is up.

Interesting, I think. There’s a lot of counter-balancing information. That feels like a shift.

I see that rates for 30-year fixed mortgages are down to 4.85%, the lowest on record.

That’s going to boost some activity in the home market, I think.

535107CD-D8B2-486A-8A82-5A18E50877FE.jpgThen Nouriel Roubini comes to the table.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.”

Aargh. Dampening.

Fortunately, Nicholas Kristof in today’s New York Times puts some facts to the potency of expert forecasts. Not very accurate, it turns out.

Ever wonder how financial experts could lead the world over the economic cliff?

One explanation is that so-called experts turn out to be, in many situations, a stunningly poor source of expertise. There’s evidence that what matters in making a sound forecast or decision isn’t so much knowledge or experience as good judgment — or, to be more precise, the way a person’s mind works.

Kristof points to research by a University of California, Berkeley professor that shows that on average forecasts by experts were only a little bit better than the outcomes of random guesses. And the more famous an expert was, the more likely the forecasts were to be wrong.

So there it is, scientific proof that when you’re in the middle of a tough situation, the best thing to do it to trust your instincts, keep working hard and gut it out. Because nobody else really has an idea of how things are going to turn out. They just cloak their uncertainty in a lot of data and a lot of authority.

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