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In mid-August, BIGResearch hosted a webinar featuring Don Schultz, one of the earliest proponents of integrated marketing, discussing the ways that consumer usage of media has shifted during the recession. The level of consumer confidence has an impact on how consumers use media and how they react to advertising, Schultz said, often with surprising results.

confidence outlook big.jpginternet usage.jpgtradtional media influence.jpgdigital media influence.jpgThe conclusions were drawn from data compiled by BIGResearch in their Simultaneous Media Usage Study, an ongoing panel that has collected more than 120,000 survey responses since late 2005. The panel is one of the most comprehensive and detailed that I am aware of and endeavors to accurately detail the time consumers spend with various media, how they respond to advertising and how they use media simultaneously.  It focuses specifically on the impact of advertising in nine retail categories, which make up the basis of the company’s consulting focus.

We make the mistake of thinking of the consumer as a monolith, Schultz said. Consumers are constantly multi-tasking, disrupting mono-focused media metrics. To build an effective marketing plan, find the consumers who have money and watch what they do. Ultimately, you’ll realize that the best way to drive marketing results is to use media combinations that the consumers use, not just pick discrete media formats.

Recent changes in how consumers are interacting with media demonstrate the value of that perspective. As consumer confidence has declined over the past two years, their use of media has changed. Interestingly, direct mail and radio usage has increased, while newspaper, television and internet usage has declined.

The shift in all media usage is particularly pronounced since June 2007. The data feels counter-intuitive on the surface: accelerating media usage during the boom and declining media usage during the contraction. The answer may be in the pace of consumer consumption. During the period of high consumption, consumers were using media to help source, compare and purchase goods. In a period when they are reducing consumption, perhaps consumers are reducing usage of media in order to diminish to the endless ads that remind them of activity they can no longer pursue.

As usage has declined, so has the impact of certain media formats on influencing purchasing decisions. According to Schultz, the influence of most traditional media is declining, TV, newspapers and magazines down according to the SIMM metrics. The influence of traditional web sites has declined as well, while blogs have become a viable influencing category, along with e-mail.

As the pace of the economy slows, and consumer confidence ebbs, the levels of media usage and impact change as well. That marketing approaches need to accommodate that shift is Schultz’ mantra and the data supports him.

[Note:  I grabbed the accompanying slides as screen shots during the webinar.  For more information, please contact the company at www.bigresearch.com.  I recommend signing up for their newsletter, which is always packed with good information about consumer trends.]

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Shadow inventory of a different kind

by drm on August 18, 2009

3F069D16-BD5B-4F05-ACFA-CE16CB2D9A6B.jpgType the words “Shadow inventory” into Google and you’ll get a scroll of results referencing the number of homes in the United States that are being held off the market for an assortment of readings. This shadow inventory, experts say, is a drag on the performance of the housing market, creating an overhang over the natural laws of supply and demand.

Looking at the consumer consumption figures and industrial productions figures for July, I was struck by a different kind of shadow inventory that is hanging over our economy.

When will consumers begin to spend again, people ask, looking for the signal that will show the consumer gearing up to pull us out of this recession?

When they work off the excess inventory of goods that they’ve accumulated in their lives, I think.

This is the real shadow inventory. When you look at the pattern of consumer consumption, core perishable consumables — groceries, gasoline, etc. — are begin consumed at volumes that are consistent with traditional consumer activity, adjusted for the depressed consumption associated with a soft labor market.

Consumption of discretionary consumables, like clothing, is down dramatically, driving down the financial performance of retailers, home supply providers, media  and other consumer-focused companies.

While it’s impossible to measure, I believe that the rampant consumption of the mid-2000′s, coupled with the increase in the size of homes and the expansion of closet and storage space led to consumer inadvertently overstocking on a wide range of goods.

Look in a child’s closet and you’ll find dozens of t-shirts, jerseys, shoes that are hardly worn. Look in the playroom and you’ll find myriad toys and games, electronics, multiple copies of video games that came from big birthday parties and munificent holiday bounties. Go to the garage and pick through the multiple soccer balls, footballs, lacrosse balls. Look in the closet and find boxed up Barbies and Calico Critters. Mom’s closet is packed. Dad’s shed is filled with tools.

The American consumer can take a break from buying without feeling like their fundamental resources are being strained.

If you want to know when the consumer is going to gear up again, figure out how long two dozen sports shirts can last when they are worn twice a month.

During this recession, the new motto isn’t “Do Without”, it is “Do With What We Have.”

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If TV and magazines have the most impact as advertising vehicles, why is revenue down so much?

April 3, 2009

Research supports the impact of TV & print advertising, but revenue are down. What’s going on?

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