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Economics

Does the new healthcare plan contain disincentives to buy insurance?

March 23, 2010

One of my favorite reads is the blog

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The short-term impact of negative equity homeownership on the housing market may not be as bad as people fear

February 24, 2010

This week’s report that more than 11.3 million homeowners owed more on their house than their house was worth has prompted a fair amount of discussion among the people I talk with.
The big question is what the data point means.
In practical terms, almost 1/3 of homeowners don’t have an ownership interest in their home.  They [...]

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Consumers are making small, meaningful changes in spending patterns, Harris Poll shows

February 22, 2010

The Great Recession — a term that is gaining more popular momentum — has had a meaningful shift on how consumers are spending money. A recent Harris Poll captures the consistency with which people are looking at their personal expenses and looking for ways to save some money.

Look at the trending pattern of what [...]

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A closer look at residential investment as a portion of Q4 2009 GDP: Real estate brokers showed an up-tick

February 2, 2010

The components of residential investment in the fourth quarter GDP report (which is subject to revision, of course) is worth looking at more closely.
Single-family housing, which made up more than 3.5% of GDP at the peak, has declined precipitously, but registered a slight increase in the fourth quarter. Another driver of growth in residential [...]

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The debt economy captured in a line graph

February 1, 2010

I’ve written a lot about how important debt has been to fueling growth over the past 30 years.  If you assume that the total possible debt has been put on the consumer economy, then you begin to see how important creating fundamental sources of new revenue are to our economic recovery.
The logic is very simple.  [...]

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Shiller says the national mood is the key to a recovery?

February 1, 2010

What role is human emotion playing in the prospects for an economic recovery?
Robert Shiller expressed his concern in this Sunday’s New York Times that a deflated population, burned by the excesses of the last decade, are feeling detached from the responsibility and opportunity to drive an economic recovery.
A USA Today/Gallup poll, for example, found this [...]

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Jobs, leverage & the future: Thoughts about the challenges of an economic hard place

January 25, 2010

Sometimes a confluence of unrelated inputs adjusts one’s perception of current and future circumstance. The adjustment doesn’t always have a re-orienting impact; often, it is more notable for confirming and strengthening a point of view.
At the end of last week, I shared a summary of Bloomberg headlines that seemed to capture a pirouette in [...]

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