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Economist

What drives quality of life and how do you assess the circumstances of the middle class?

If quality of life relates to access to sufficient food and shelter to ensure good health, then an overwhelming plurality of American’s have good quality of life.

If quality of life improves when you have access to devices that reduce the time and labor required to maintain your living conditions, and if your circumstances provide tools and devices to make your leisure time more productive, then your average American is living in an era of unparalleled quality.

A9F958C7-9361-4575-9123-4DF561F937F6.jpgThe chart to the right forms the basis of an argument by W. Michael Cox of AOLNews that suggesting that the American Middle Class is oppressed ignores the remarkable penetration of devices that save time, create connections and entertain in the average American’s life.

My inner technophile loves the chart for the increasing speed of adoption cycles. Note also that the advent of microelectronics has accelerated the adoption of devices that connect people to information and each other. We are in the middle of a second great information revolution, of as much consequence as the proliferation of the popular press in the 18th Century.

But, electronic media is often called the opiate of the masses.

Perhaps Cox believes that unlimited access to media offsets an unsettling shift in income distribution over the past 20 years.

As the Huffington Post reports:

Beginning in the economic expansion of the early 1990s, Saez argues, the economy began to favor the top tiers American earners, but much of the country missed was left behind. “The top 1 percent incomes captured half of the overall economic growth over the period 1993-2007,” Saes writes.

D62CC536-85BC-4776-B19C-72CEA924C4AF.jpgYes, all these devices cost less, and the average American consumer can afford more cool devices.

But when 60% of the population makes 40% of the income, that creates a wide swath of people who have no safety net, and who more often than not are borrowing just to keep up.

30CA12BE-0AD4-4459-AA49-DBE96343F455.jpgThe question of the state of the Middle Class isn’t as simple as questions of food and shelter. It isn’t as easy to define as the access people have to electronic devices.

The state of the middle class is captured in how secure they feel in the world that they experience. The proliferation of media causes dissonance: Images of luxury clash with the reality of daily struggles. No one thing captures the state of the middle class. When Obama talks about rescuing people from their struggles, he is capturing a key element of the zeitgeist. His weakness is his disposition to using the tools of government as the primary release of stress.

The greater question I find myself coming up against again and again is whether leadership can change the culture of a country, can shift values and redeploy the spirit of the citizenship to advance the greater interests of all.

Yesterday, I ran into a retired economist. We talked briefly about the current economic and political situation. His final comment:

Capitalism is an economic system driven by greed. When every part of the system is looking to maximize profits, there has to be suffering. You can’t have everybody be winners. There have to be losers. We lost sight of that.

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What role is human emotion playing in the prospects for an economic recovery?

Robert Shiller expressed his concern in this Sunday’s New York Times that a deflated population, burned by the excesses of the last decade, are feeling detached from the responsibility and opportunity to drive an economic recovery.

A USA Today/Gallup poll, for example, found this month that about two-thirds of Americans say they think that economic recovery won’t start for two more years, while 28 percent say it won’t begin for at least five years.

The workforce has been in a long period of disenchantment, Shiller suggests.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, annual growth of business output per labor hour averaged 3.2 percent from 1948 to 1973, but only 1.9 percent from 1973 to 2008.

Ever since the long-term productivity slowdown became visible, the economist Samuel Bowles, now at the Santa Fe Institute, has said that its causes are to be found as much in the loss of “hearts and minds” of workers and investors as in technology.

This month at Yale, in lectures titled “Machiavelli’s Mistake,” he spoke of the error of thinking that a high-performance economy could be based on self-interest alone. And he warned of the overuse of incentives that appeal to individual gain.

The path back is to regain the interest and the energy of the people who make the engine go — workers and investors.  A sense of the possible, combined with a sense of purpose, can have a tremendous impact.

Solutions for the economy must address not only the structural instability of our financial institutions, but also these problems in the hearts and minds of workers and investors — problems that may otherwise persist for many years.

What are the factors that can drive that feeling of potential?

As I read the Shiller piece, I wondered to what degree the emphasis on “inventing the future” during the technological and financial boom of the last 20 years has left the rank and file feeling disengaged and uninspired.  Our business mythology off the last two decades has focused on hero-stories, individuals who have invented the future whole cloth, made great wealth, retooled the way business works.

But so many of these hero stories have ended up being all smoke:  Internet companies sold for billions of dollars end up vanishing; the great wealth of the financial services economy evaporated almost overnight.

Our current mythos is of the worker as disadvantaged, of an economy that doesn’t make things, that is at a disadvantage.

If Shiller’s observations are right, and that the national character has been distressed by the economic downturn, then what can set it right?  Is this as easy as picking the right narrative, picking the right goals to set, so that people can feel like they are picking the country up by its bootstraps and setting it right?

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The economic stimulus program was off target in simple ways, Harvard’s Feldstein writes

January 20, 2010

Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economist, today in the Wall Street Journal offers an attractively succinct and common-sense assessment of the effect of Obama administration programs on the economy.
A stimulus was needed, Feldstein writes. The problems was that it had the wrong emphasis.
The result was an unnecessarily large increase in the national debt for a [...]

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A look at the leverage cycle

November 9, 2009

If you give people money to buy things, they’ll buy more than if they are using their own money. The less skin in the game, the more risk they will take. That’s the essence of what Yale economist John Geanakoplos calls “leverage cycle” theory. An article in the Wall Street Journal last [...]

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Thinking about the short-term direction of the housing market

September 9, 2009

I’ve been musing the last couple of days over the trajectory of the economy and the housing market, wondering what the recent trends portend. One by-product of the economic decline, neatly summed up in Paul Krugman’s New York Times piece this past Sunday, is that no expert is reliable. The future is unknowable [...]

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The complex prospects for consumer consumption

July 7, 2009

Look at current commentary on the state of the economy and a few hot topics pop to the forefront. First, consumers: What will they spend, where will they spend it, what will they save and will they have jobs?
The folklore of our current plight is that a turbo-charged consumer drove the economic expansion [...]

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How does a recovery in housing square with the development of the New Economy?

March 29, 2009

Reduced migration within the U.S. will create challenges for developing a new, prosperous economy.

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