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home sales

The headlines announcing that Bank of America has stopped processing foreclosures in order to assess their internal controls are difficult to process.  On one hand, this sound like a good thing, because if the pace of foreclosures slows it will diminish the number of families under stress and lighten the overhang of foreclosed properties on the housing market.  On the other hand, you don’t get foreclosed on until you’ve stopped paying your mortgage, right?  So what’s the big deal.

To sort it out, I recommend you follow the five-part series that kicked off today at Barry Ritholtz’ The Big Picture.  The post is authored by Mike Konczal, a fellow at The Roosevelt Institute.

The big question at play isn’t just whether the mortgage processors have been playing fair with homeowners.  It’s whether the financial institutions actually know where the original mortgage documentation is.   Can they produce the piece of paper they need to have to demonstrate the lien on the property?

The issue is captured neatly in a two-part graphic, reproduced below.

NewImage.jpg

As the post points out, the issue of whether or not the mortgages can be found has significant implications for the financial players.

So keep these frameworks in mind when you see the debate unfold in the next weeks. It is a problem of systemic risk, and it is a problem for the currently cratered securitization market. It will need to be addressed, the sooner the better.  But how?

What should we all make of this?  Consider it a last, bad joke on the part of the financial services industry.  This new “foreclosure crisis” has nothing to do with home values or the ability of home owners to make payments of mortgages.  But, it has a lot of potential to slow down the housing market, at a point that the market doesn’t need any more headwinds.

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The housing market is recovering. At least, 1 million people think so.

That’s the number of people who bought homes in the first three months of 2010. And that’s more people than have bought homes in the first three months of the last two years.

Let’s throw out caveats and the concerns and step back for a moment. It’s easy to point to a lot of different reasons why the home sales figures are inflated, or why home prices continue to have risk.

The two charts below show the sustained trend in recovering home sales over the past two years.

The first chart plots the number of homes sold in the first quarter over the past decade.

q1 last decade.png

The 1 million home buyers in the first quarter don’t measure up to the levels of the real estate boom. But that’s not what a recovery means.

A recovery does mean changes in momentum. The second chart looks at how the market pacing has looked at the start of each of the last four years. This first quarter of this year was up 12% in sales versus the year before, breaking a decline that started in 2006.

The resale market is clouded by a lot of external factors that are driving price and inventory, but the actual number of homes sold show that there is an underlying increase in demand. From it we can infer that consumers feel good about buying homes. And that’s what the recovery will look like.

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Good reads for Jan 25, 2010

January 25, 2010

The drop in home sales wasn’t entirely unexpected, with the buyers pushing to close deals in November before they expected the tax incentive ran out. Market conditions are better than they were, but there are unanswered questions still ahead in the Spring. (via CalculatedRiskI
The financial markets reacted uncertainly to Obama’s proposal to remake [...]

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A velocity-focused view of the home sales market

November 25, 2009

When thinking about the home sales market, I find it useful to look at the relative velocity of sales.
This metric captures just how significant the slowdown in home sales was over the past few years, and how strong the recovery has been in 2009.
Since 1999, the number of homes sold in October has been 48% [...]

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First half pacing of home sales was strong, with caveats

August 18, 2009

Most of the data about the real estate market focuses on how sales are trending versus prior year, or the change versus the prior month.
An interesting way to assess the market is to look at how home sales have grown during the course of the year. As I’ve observed before, the majority of home [...]

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A look at the trajectory and trend in the existing home market

July 3, 2009

The recent home sales data from NAR suggest that the real estate contraction will come to an end in December.

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