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home sales

The housing market is recovering. At least, 1 million people think so.

That’s the number of people who bought homes in the first three months of 2010. And that’s more people than have bought homes in the first three months of the last two years.

Let’s throw out caveats and the concerns and step back for a moment. It’s easy to point to a lot of different reasons why the home sales figures are inflated, or why home prices continue to have risk.

The two charts below show the sustained trend in recovering home sales over the past two years.

The first chart plots the number of homes sold in the first quarter over the past decade.

q1 last decade.png

The 1 million home buyers in the first quarter don’t measure up to the levels of the real estate boom. But that’s not what a recovery means.

A recovery does mean changes in momentum. The second chart looks at how the market pacing has looked at the start of each of the last four years. This first quarter of this year was up 12% in sales versus the year before, breaking a decline that started in 2006.

The resale market is clouded by a lot of external factors that are driving price and inventory, but the actual number of homes sold show that there is an underlying increase in demand. From it we can infer that consumers feel good about buying homes. And that’s what the recovery will look like.

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Good reads for Jan 25, 2010

by drm on January 25, 2010

The drop in home sales wasn’t entirely unexpected, with the buyers pushing to close deals in November before they expected the tax incentive ran out. Market conditions are better than they were, but there are unanswered questions still ahead in the Spring. (via CalculatedRiskI

The financial markets reacted uncertainly to Obama’s proposal to remake the financial industry. Here’s a detailed explanation of what the reforms can mean. (via Economist’s View)

With social media moving up on the priority list, the PR/communications function has the potential to become more important and strategic within the corporation. (via SteveRubel)

MediaNews Group has been the model for tight financial management combined with solid newspapering skills. The company is restructuring its debt for more financial flexiblity, with entrepreneur Dean Singleton keeping control, reports say. (via PaidContent)

“Weak connections” can be valuable in driving your digital networking; don’t feel compelled to connect only with those people you can maintain a relationship. (via SocialMediaToday)

For publishing types, a good case study of implementing Drupal as a publishing platform and driving traffic and engagement. (via eMediaVitals)

We’ve all seen Forrester’s Technographic’s Ladder. Ed Boches suggests that a focus of your social marketing should be to attract the Creators, so that your brand will benefit from a broader content footprint. Interesting targeted strategy. (via CreativityUnbound)

The active core of Twitter is growing. Something about the service takes root. (via eMarketer)

Apartment shoppers go online at different times than home shoppers during the week. What’s that all about? (via BeingPresent)

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A velocity-focused view of the home sales market

November 25, 2009

When thinking about the home sales market, I find it useful to look at the relative velocity of sales.
This metric captures just how significant the slowdown in home sales was over the past few years, and how strong the recovery has been in 2009.
Since 1999, the number of homes sold in October has been 48% [...]

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First half pacing of home sales was strong, with caveats

August 18, 2009

Most of the data about the real estate market focuses on how sales are trending versus prior year, or the change versus the prior month.
An interesting way to assess the market is to look at how home sales have grown during the course of the year. As I’ve observed before, the majority of home [...]

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A look at the trajectory and trend in the existing home market

July 3, 2009

The recent home sales data from NAR suggest that the real estate contraction will come to an end in December.

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