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home sales

Good reads for Jan 25, 2010

by drm on January 25, 2010

The drop in home sales wasn’t entirely unexpected, with the buyers pushing to close deals in November before they expected the tax incentive ran out. Market conditions are better than they were, but there are unanswered questions still ahead in the Spring. (via CalculatedRiskI

The financial markets reacted uncertainly to Obama’s proposal to remake the financial industry. Here’s a detailed explanation of what the reforms can mean. (via Economist’s View)

With social media moving up on the priority list, the PR/communications function has the potential to become more important and strategic within the corporation. (via SteveRubel)

MediaNews Group has been the model for tight financial management combined with solid newspapering skills. The company is restructuring its debt for more financial flexiblity, with entrepreneur Dean Singleton keeping control, reports say. (via PaidContent)

“Weak connections” can be valuable in driving your digital networking; don’t feel compelled to connect only with those people you can maintain a relationship. (via SocialMediaToday)

For publishing types, a good case study of implementing Drupal as a publishing platform and driving traffic and engagement. (via eMediaVitals)

We’ve all seen Forrester’s Technographic’s Ladder. Ed Boches suggests that a focus of your social marketing should be to attract the Creators, so that your brand will benefit from a broader content footprint. Interesting targeted strategy. (via CreativityUnbound)

The active core of Twitter is growing. Something about the service takes root. (via eMarketer)

Apartment shoppers go online at different times than home shoppers during the week. What’s that all about? (via BeingPresent)

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A velocity-focused view of the home sales market

by drm on November 25, 2009

When thinking about the home sales market, I find it useful to look at the relative velocity of sales.

This metric captures just how significant the slowdown in home sales was over the past few years, and how strong the recovery has been in 2009.

Since 1999, the number of homes sold in October has been 48% higher than the number of homes sold in January, on average.

Screen shot 2009-11-25 at 11.44.25 AM.jpg

The home sales market performed within a relatively narrow band from 1999 to 2005. In 2006, however, October home sales were only 16% higher than January. The market had come to a virtual halt.

In 2009, October sales are 94% higher than in January.

From month-to-month, the relative velocity of home sales follows a fairly predictable pattern. The next chart shows sales from July to September for each year in the past decade.

2009 is clearly an anomaly, inasmuch as there has been minimal drop-off in home sales at the beginning of fall.

Screen shot 2009-11-25 at 11.52.46 AM.jpg

Clearly, the impending expiration of the government housing tax break in November helped to sustain the market velocity. While it’s likely that the rate will slow into the winter, the artificial stimulus has had the effect of re-charging the home sales market. Inventory has been worked off and the gap between seller and buyer price expectations has narrowed.

Going into 2010, we have the dynamics of a normalized housing market in place.

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First half pacing of home sales was strong, with caveats

August 18, 2009

Most of the data about the real estate market focuses on how sales are trending versus prior year, or the change versus the prior month.
An interesting way to assess the market is to look at how home sales have grown during the course of the year. As I’ve observed before, the majority of home [...]

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A look at the trajectory and trend in the existing home market

July 3, 2009

The recent home sales data from NAR suggest that the real estate contraction will come to an end in December.

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