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Macroeconomics

Three charts that help explain the challenges for local economies

January 11, 2010

These three charts help frame why the current economic climate doesn’t feel like a recovery.
State tax receipts have experienced a dramatic decline.

As retail sales drop, so do retail tax receipts, a big driver of local tax revenue.

As long as people are out of work, retail sales will be supressed. The current spate of job [...]

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Looking at some long-term trends in the employment numbers

January 8, 2010

A new data point emerged in the reporting on the job figures today: the employment population ratio. The metric a fairly absolute measuring stick: What percentage of the people in the United States, of any age, are employed at anyone time.
One version of the data is presented below in a chart from [...]

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A global shift in GDP Market Share

November 24, 2009

An interesting, quick analysis of global GDP trends by Mark Perry, a University of Michigan professor, shows that on the big stage, the United States has held its share of economic production remarkably steady for the past 40 years.

Bottom Line: World GDP (real) doubled between 1969 and 1990, and has increased by another 60% since [...]

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What will a long stretch of high unemployment mean?

November 17, 2009

John Mauldin’s letter this week was detail, thought-provoking and important for anyone who is planning their business strategy for the next several years.
Maudlin built on an argument that he introduced a couple of months ago. Drawing on the work of several colleagues, Maudlin empirically demonstrated that the economy was unlikely to replace the volume [...]

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The current state of the economy in 5 pictures

October 1, 2009

Let’s take a step back and look at some of the big trends that are driving the consumer economy.
First, the change in private-sector employment. While the month-to-month employment figures have been moderating, we are still looking at the loss of 7 million jobs in the last two years. That makes people feel insecure [...]

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The consumer recovery needs 15 million jobs created in 5 years…a formidable challenge

September 28, 2009

The New York Times this weekend had a stark picture of the imbalance of supply and demand in the employment. Nearly 14.5 million people are out of work and there are only about 2.4 million job openings in the U.S.

Coincidentally, John Mauldin’s letter this Saturday takes a close look at the scale of unemployment [...]

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