The recent forecast for social media ad spending from eMarketer got a lot of attention because of an overall decline in volume driven by a projected decline at the tumultuous MySpace.
A quick look at the numbers creates the impression of an emerging media category with tapped out econo
mics and a boatload of hype.
I am most struck, however, by the contrast between projections for spending by marketers in contrast to the overall usage statistics for social media.
eMarketer cites a Forrester study in the fourth quarter that shows more than half of all marketers intend to increase their social media investment, while 42% expect to keep it the same. Only 5% intend to scale back.
But usage figures show that if you want to find consumers on the web, you need to go to the social networks.
A look at the April results from Media Metrix shows the different characteristics of the Search user population and the Social network user population. While Search engines attracted 22% more visitors and 32% more visits, Social networks claimed a huge lead in terms of engagement. Users of Social networks spent 4 times more time and viewed 3 times more pages than the users of Search engines. In fact, the average visit by a user to a Social network lasted 6.5 times longer than the average visit to a Search engine.
Another recent study from Forrester indicates that not only are consumers spen
ding time on social networks, they want to find their favorite brands there also.
More than half of online tweens and teens and 42% of online adults want to see a social application from their favorite brands. For example, one in four US online adults want to see discussion forums from brands they like, while more than one-third of teens want profiles on social networks.
What’s behind the divergence of marketer intent, consumer activity and consumer preference?
Process.
The situation mirrors the early days of online marketing and advertising. The first step was the slow process to building web sites. Marketers dipped their toes in and then pulled back as they digested the implications of having an interactive marketing brochure. The same thing was true for display advertising: After an initial surge of activity, the entire advertising supply chain, from marketers to agencies to designers, pulled back and regrouped. They didn’t have the processes and approaches necessary to create impact…and to make money.
Move to 2009 and the world of social networks. The concept of conversational marketing is enticing and logical. But the process demands on a marketing organization posed by conversational marketing are almost diametrically opposed to the linear and one-way process that currently defines the distribution of marketing content at virtually all brands.
As I’ve said before, stale content is deadly in social media. The big brands know. They are coming at social media with more intelligence and experience in interactive marketing than at any other point in the web’s emergence. They’ll make the move into the new medium. Slowly, intentionally and, I hope, effectively.
The lure is a marketing environment where brands can engage on an extended basis with consumers, weave themselves into the fabric of the experience and create communities of interest that will enhance sales and improve profits.
