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Senate

This has the feel of a big week. The headlines that clicked by on Bloomberg today captured a different zeitgeist than last week, a sense of a logjam of rhetoric and disconnection break open.

Commentators will have a field day, but it’s worth taking a look at how the rhythm of the news shifted.

1-21 hed 11 go 1.pngHere’s the summary of the day.

  • The activity that drives jobs and the economy — manufacturing and services — is gearing up, albeit slowly.
  • The employment market continues to stabilize.
  • Obama, faced with a strategic defeat in Massachusetts, quickly tunes into popular opinion, backs off health care and goes straight after the Wall Street titans.
  • Consumers are beginning to spend more, and the biggest Wall Street giant of them all bows to popular opinion to cut back its bonus pool, after using a Federal subsidy to post its highest earning year ever.
  • In the midst of this sudden shift in momentum, the market slides, unclear what the implications are and in a hurry to hedge its downside risk.

Here’s the highlights from Bloomberg:

U.S. Economy: Leading Index Rises More Than Forecast

The New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months climbed 1.1 percent, the most in three months, after increasing 1 percent in November. The gain exceeded the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey for a 0.7 percent rise. Another report showed Philadelphia-area manufacturing expanded in January for a fifth straight month.

Factories in Philadelphia Fed Region Grew in January

Increases in exports and business investment, combined with a need to stabilize inventories, may promote further gains in manufacturing in early 2010. The report corroborates figures issued by the Fed Bank of New York last week that showed factories in that region accelerated, indicating the rebound is broad-based.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Rise on Backlog

The jump was due to an “administrative” accumulation from late December and early January holidays, and did not reflect “economic” reasons, a Labor Department spokesman said.

Obama, Democrats Signal Willingness to Scale Back Health Bill

President Barack Obama and House Democratic lawmakers signaled a willingness to scale back legislation overhauling the U.S. health-care system after the party suffered a defeat in a key Senate race.

Obama Calls for Limiting Size, Risk-Taking of Banks

President Barack Obama, tapping into voter anger over bank bailouts, called for limiting the size and trading activities of financial institutions as a way to reduce risk-taking and prevent another financial crisis.

American Express Profit Surges as Spending Rebounds

“We still face the challenge of high unemployment levels, depressed real estate values, and shrunken household balance sheets, but the overall economy and our company are in stronger shape than they were a year ago,” Chenault said in the statement. “While the economic recovery now under way is likely to be modest, we expect it to continue and have begun to shift our focus to growing American Express for the longer term.”

Goldman Sachs Posts Record Profit on Bonus Pool Cuts

“The big story is the compensation,” said Keith Davis, an analyst at Farr, Miller & Washington LLC in Washington, which manages about $650 million, including Goldman Sachs shares. “They got the message that politically they can’t be paying out close to 50 percent of revenues anymore, at least for the time being. Obviously, that’s the primary reason for the beat.”

Stocks, Commodities Slide, Treasuries Gain on Obama Bank Reform

“Financials are selling off and dragging down the market,” said Michael Nasto, the senior trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc., which manages about $2.5 billion in San Antonio. “There’s concern about an overhaul of financial services companies, with increased regulation, hurting the bottom-line of banks.”

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Another step in the shift around Search

by drm on January 4, 2010

In his 2010 projections, John Battelle touches on search:

7. Traditional search results will deteriorate to the point that folks begin to question search’s validity as a service. This does not mean people will stop using search – habits do not die that quickly and search will continue to have significant utility. But we are in the midst of a significant transition in search – as I’ve recently written, we are asking far more complicated questions of search, ones that search is simply not set up to answer. This incongruence is not really fair to blame on search, but so it goes. Add to this the problem of an entire ecosystem set up to game AdWords, and the table is set. Google will take most of the brand blame, but also do the most to address the issue in 2010.

This dovetails nicely with David Carr’s rumination on Twitter in this Sunday’s New York Times. Despite his initial skepticism and subsequent floundering, Twitter has become Carr’s de facto information stream.

At first, Twitter can be overwhelming, but think of it as a river of data rushing past that I dip a cup into every once in a while. Much of what I need to know is in that cup: if it looks like Apple is going to demo its new tablet, or Amazon sold more Kindles than actual books at Christmas, or the final vote in the Senate gets locked in on health care, I almost always learn about it first on Twitter.

What’s going on?

The divergence between the basic premise of Google and the basic interests of people is becoming more clear.

Google has a clear underlying industrial logic: to organize all the world’s information. It’s a meta-Library of Congress, real-time, ubiquitous and, in its most pristine expression, neutral.

A storehouse of information is a really cool and useful thing.

But when I want to find something out, I like knowing what other people are saying. What’s a good restaurant? What’s the best Droid phone to get? Who’s making some interesting music?

These are the kinds of questions that get answered in the give and take of social dialogue, daily interactions between each of us and the people who we know and that we meet. These interactions have got dimensionality that allow us to give them relative weight. Some we pay close attention to, some less.

“Search” is a highly functioning technological artifact that solves a specific problem presented by the design limitations of web-based information data bases.

My social graph, in all of its various permutations, has a design that is more closely aligned with the human bias of social interactions. Social media, as Carr observes of Twitter, keeps me in the flow and lets me pick and choose from the flow when I need to.

That’s a dynamic, people-based activity set that does things that Search can’t ever hope to do and that technology solutions will only be able to offer a faint shadow of.

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