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Yahoo! Inc.

Yahoo! chief Carol Bartz made an interesting point about Google in an interview with the BBC today:

“Google is going to have a problem because Google is only known for search,” said Ms Bartz. “It is only half our business; it’s 99.9% of their business. They’ve got to find other things to do.  Google has to grow a company the size of Yahoo every year to be interesting.”

yahoo_logo.jpgPeople are going to focus on the bravado and positioning — after all Bartz needs to clearly define Yahoo’s value proposition in a market where the company is unfavorably compared with Google on an ongoing basis.

Search isn’t an infinitely expanding business opportunity. In fact, several dynamics at work suggest that the growth of search revenue will slow, limiting Google’s overall opportunity for growth. First, penetration of potential advertisers is higher today than it was two years ago for Google. And second, the shift of internet usage into social networks has incrementally changed the search behavior of web users.

Google’s media proposition is built on the back of search. That means that the audience that Google aggregates to the benefit of marketers — a basic definition of ad-supported media — relies to an outsized degree on search traffic.

Yahoo! has a more diverse media proposition. That’s the “half of our business” that Bart is referring to.

In this regard, Yahoo! is more like AOL than Google. Not surprisingly, AOL is facing its own challenges in terms of definition, value and opportunity.

The big issue here is that the largest diversified web media brands aren’t demonstrating the ability to grow revenues and hold on to consumers that suggest the franchises deserve premium growth valuations.

Yahoo! and AOL are predominantly content-driven media platforms that have created applications in order to enhance user engagement. That business model is an interactive evolution of the traditional media business model. new AOL logoIn this regard, the companies are very different, and have very different challenges, from Google.

The primary challenge remains how to effectively keep content and applications fresh while managing a huge consumer audience, and how to make that base of content accessible and valuable to advertisers. The problem solving is discrete, because one approach doesn’t necessarily fit to every different content platform and user experience. (In this respect, the companies suffer in comparison to Google, which is incredibly simple to explain.)  An underlying question is whether focused media brands are more viable than diversified media brands.

When thinking about the strategic challenge of Yahoo! and AOL, I’d suggest that the most salient question is how these two platforms retain consumer interest and loyalty in an environment where Facebook is becoming a de facto operating internet operating system.

One of the Google searches that drives traffic to this site regularly is “Is Facebook the new AOL.”

The query could just as easily be, Is Facebook the new interactive media model? As an interactive media platform, Facebook is organizing and directing shared content, providing content publishing tools, generating scale audience with a high definition of individual interests and producing content within its own operating system seamlessly.

Facebook allows users to dictate what content is important and interesting.  That model is fundamentally different from the Yahoo!/AOL model.

Facebook can be an incredibly valuable tool for anyone trying to generate a business from content, and it could ultimately be a profound disintermediator for Yahoo! and AOL, which today look like legacy media brands on the web.

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The recovering economy is driving bullish projections for online advertising. Two trends are apparent: the dollars will migrate toward the outlets with the largest and best performing audiences, and the trend towards leveraging social media tools in marketing continues to be a small portion of overall spend.

eMarketer has featured several research snippets and projections over the past couple of weeks that help support these observations.

Forecasts from leading market observers regarding online advertising growth are getting increasingly bullish, a recent roundup shows.

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US online advertising proved at least somewhat recession-resistant in 2009, if not recession-proof. eMarketer estimated in December that spending on online ads dipped 4.6% last year to $22.4 billion and forecast a return to growth of 5.5% this year. Other firms have published projections in the past three months predicting that 2010 ad spending will increase more steeply.

The forecast from Citi Investment Research presented in the accompanying chart shows the strong growth in both search and display advertising projected for 2010. The biggest growing category continues to be digital video.

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Within the overall online landscape, the top ad portals exert a disproportionate amount of influence. eMarketer’s research shows that the top four portals will account for more than 57% of all internet ad spending in 2010.

Google is by far the dominant player, driving more than 3 times the share and more than 2 times the average revenue per user than its closest competitor, Yahoo!.

The hegemony of the largest sites and the relatively fixed share of market for the top internet advertising outlets mask a developing shift in consumer behavior that portends continued strong growth for content marketing and social media marketing.

Consumers are becoming increasingly more likely to respond to advertising when it is accompanied by good content.

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An ARANet Adfusion study shows that web users are significantly more likely to take action on an online ad when it is close to “online articles that include brand information” than when they see the ad as a sponsored search engine link.

“We’re seeing that article-based advertising rates highest with these important and discerning audiences,” said ARAnet president Scott Severson, in a statement. “Compared to other online advertising options, consumers prefer reading an article, evaluating it, and then deciding to click through for more information.”

Sponsored search links also appealed to younger and higher-income targets, with 23% of 25- to 34-year-olds saying they were very likely to act on such ads compared with 11% of respondents overall. Banner ads and e-mail offers appealed most to the 18-to-34 age group, as well as Hispanics and African-Americans.

This increased responsiveness — which should lead to increased sales — is the basic reason for companies to incorporate content into their marketing and advertising programs.

The tactical question is how to best distribute the content so that it will be encountered frequently by consumers, with an effective ad or response tool available at the same time. But it would be a mistake for companies to look at the overall projections for internet marketing and conclude that content marketing, and the viability of social media platforms, is a passing fad with no real value to the bottom line.

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A new web paradigm that emphasizes the social circle over digital data bases takes shape

February 22, 2010

The discussion about Facebook experienced a tipping point last week: third-party data confirmed what many observers had been suggesting, that Facebook exerts a powerful influence on how consumers are using the web.
Sheer scale is the first hurdle. Compete released data that showed Facebook outstripping Google in terms of web visits in January, a [...]

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Local business & social media: A ground level view

January 6, 2010

Over the past four months I’ve had the opportunity to visit a number of markets around the country to give my presentation “The Hidden Power of Social Media: How to Improve Your Networking, Increase Your Web Traffic & Generate More Leads Just by Being Yourself.”
More than 700 people have attended these sessions. The attendees [...]

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10 years past, 10 years forward

December 23, 2009

10 doesn’t sound like a big number, but when you start looking back over a decade, 10 years of an ever-expanding and innovating world, 10 years feels huge and unwieldy.
At the beginning of this past decade (the first decade of the 21th Century…how cool!) I was working with an Internet company called Themestream, started by [...]

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Maybe Murdoch isn’t nuts about blocking Google

November 10, 2009

Rupert Murdoch declares he’s going to shun Google.
Google says, We don’t care.
The world cries out that Rupert is misguided.
An enterprising blogger goes onto Compete.com’s site and tries to sort out just how dependent Murdoch’s web properties are on Google’s traffic. His answer? Not as dependent as it might seem:
The screenshot to the right [...]

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Some highlights from Move.com’s earnings call

August 6, 2009

Move.com is the 10,000 pound gorilla in the real estate internet market, and the long-time player has been making a number of changes under the leadership of new CEO Steve Berkowitz. The company’s quarterly earnings call is a good opportunity to check in with the direction of their strategy and to assess the potential [...]

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